HRENSEMBLE - High Resolution ENSEMBLEs for Horns Rev
1. April 2006 - 31. December 2009
PSO Contract No. 2006-1-6387
WEPROG ApS, Ebberup, Denmark
BBH - Bolding-Burchard ApS Hydrodynamics, Asperup, Denmark
DTU, Institute of Mathematical Modelling, Copenhagen, Denmark
Fraunhofer IWES, Energy Meteorology and System Integration, Kassel, Germany
DONG Energy Generation, Fredericia, Denmark
Vattenfall A/S, Copenhagen, Denmark
Risø National Laoratory, Roskilde, Denmark
Information Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org
The HREnsemble project is supported by the Danish PSO programmeThe Danish Electricity Supply Act (Elforsyningsloven), the Danish Act on Energinet Danmark (Lov om Energinet Danmark) and the order concerning system operator responsibility (Systemansvarsbekendtgørelsen) together lay down the framework for the Danish Public Service Obligations' (PSO) programme.
The R&D activities are financed on the basis of tariffs charged for the transmission of electricity in the high-voltage grid and natural gas in the natural gas grid. The TSO ensures that R&D within the electricity system is paid for by electricity consumers, while similar R&D within the natural gas system is paid for by gas consumers.The TSO funds R&D on environmentally friendly electricity production technologies by means of a special
PSO tariff of DKK 0.004 per kWh, which all electricity consumers pay via their electricity bills.
Each year, and subject to the approval of the Danish Minister for Transport and Energy, the TSO provides PSO funds for R&D into environmentally friendly electricity production technologies. This is called the ForskEL programme. During the 2005-2008 period, a maximum of DKK 130 million is granted per year.
The focus areas are adjusted from one year to the next and can be seen from the annual tender. The Danish TSO administers the ForskEL programme, but does not participate in R&D activities itself. The ForskEL programme is carefully coordinated with the other Danish energy research programmes.
More information can be found on Energinet.dk's webpage
HREnembles ObjectivesThe wind farm output of an offshore-farm such as Horns Rev changes between nearly constant output to highly variable power output. A balance responsible would benefit from knowing the variability of a wind farm in advance.
Some understanding of the observed variability and the corresponding forecast error on offshore wind farms has been gathered in the past few years. However, a large fraction (about 60%) of the error lacks understanding and requires further intense research. There are obvious sources, which cause planetary boundary layer eddies to dominate the wind power production, such as cold air flowing over a warm sea surface. The spurious nature of power can however also appear under reversed conditions, which is more complex to explain, as this usually takes place under very specific weather conditions, which do not always occur often enough to draw realistic conclusions.
Although ensemble prediction systems in moderate resolution provide an advantage in comparison to deterministic single forecasts by determining a confidence interval, this interval is often not related to the mesoscale generated variability of the wind farm output. To produce a realistic variability of the wind offshore and to make use of the advantages from an ensemble of forecasts, the numerical weather prediction model resolution of the ensemble needs to approach the horizontal extend of the wind farm.
To study the interactions further, the consortium will combine developments in ocean, weather and wind power prediction. For this, an ocean model will be combined with an ensemble prediction system in coarse resolution to simulate the larger scales of the weather and ocean and to feed into high resolution ensembles to provide best possible input data for wind to power conversion approaches.